What is Hulistics?Four tips that do not fail with assumptions

When we make decisions, we may use the "Hulistics" in psychology.It is a method of thinking that derives the answer from the rules of empirical and prejudice.

For example, when you see a person with a "foreign style" with hair, height, or face, many people think that you can speak English.But that person was born in Japan and raised in Japan and could only speak Japanese, and even if he was from a foreign country, it is not always English -speaking.

Hulistics is a convenient method, but it is not easy to reach the correct answer, and it is not accurate.Know the Hulistics we are using unconsciously to avoid serious mistakes due to prejudice and prejudice.This section describes the differences between Hulistics and algorithms and the types of Hulistics, such as "Representative Hulistic".

What is Hulistics?

Hulistics in psychology is a method of thinking based on prejudice and experience.It is the opposite of the "algorithm" procedure that is logically solved by calculation.

The etymology of Hulistics is the Greek word "Eureka", which means "found!"The definition of Hulistics is as follows.

(Quoted source: Akiko Murai (2012) by Daniel Carneman (2012), "How is Fast & Slow your will? (Upper)", Hayakawa Shobo.

Action economist Daniel Carneman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, and the late psychologist, Aimos Tuversky, explained Hulistics as follows.

(Quoted source: Akiko Murai (2012) by Daniel Carneman (2012), "How is Fast & Slow your will? (Lower)", Hayakawa Shobo.

Hulistics seem to have both advantages and disadvantages.What is it?Let's take a look at four typical Huristics.

Representative Hulistic

"Representative Hulistic" is a method to judge compared to stereotypes (typical images).The estimation at the beginning, "A foreign -like appearance will speak English" is a representative phylistic.

See the famous "Linda Problem" on Representative Hulistic announced by Carneman and Tuversky.Which do you choose A or B?　

(Quoted source: Yuji Hakoda, Tonori Tsuji, Hideaki Kawabata, Shigeru Hagiwara (2010), "Cognitive Psychology", Yuikaku.

In the experiment, about 90 % of subjects chose B.However, the condition of A is only one of the "bank's duty section", but the condition of B is "the bank's duty section" and "a female liberation movement".It is impossible to logically that the probability of A is lower than B.

In other words, most people judge using representative hulistic, not logic.He imagined a typical figure of the "Bank's Account Section" and "Women Liberation Athleticist", and decided on how much Linda matches the image.It can be called "prejudice".

Possibility of use Hulistic

"Possibility Huristic" is a method of relying on information that is easy to remember and obtained without collecting related information widely.Professor Michel Badilly (South Australian University Institute of South Australia), a leader in behavioral economics, expresses the possibility of use as follows.

(Quoted source: Michelle Badery, translated by Nami Hijikata (2018), "Behavioral Economics Essential Version", Hayakawa Shobo.

According to Professor Vaddy, the possibility that Hulistic tends to be used in situations where speedy judgment is required.The following are the factors and specific examples of Hulistic.

頻繁に接しているもの

Habit behavior and advertisements you often see.

個人的に関わりのあること

My experience, events that happened around, date of birth, etc.

インパクトのある出来事

Shocking news, etc.

具体性があるもの

Reviews of friends and website.

Time is finite.It is impossible to examine all the related information and possibilities when judging and determining things.

Therefore, it can be said that the possibility of use that is easy to remember and obtained from information is reasonable.However, it may be important that you do not know or obtain it, so if you rely on the possibility Hulistic, you will decide to judge with serious information.

Mooring and adjustment Hulistic

"Mooring (anchoring) and adjustment hulistic" is a method of estimating the first information as clues.Anchoring is to connect the ship with a rope.It is derived from the "anchor" that sinks on the sea floor and fixes the ship.

See the following examples to understand the effects of mooring and adjustment hulistic.

(Quoted source: Shinichi Ichikawa (1997), "Invitation to cognitive psychology of scientific inferences of thinking", Chuo Public Nomination Shinsha.

In the above two examples, both have heard, "How many people are the Turkey population?"However, it is influenced by the numbers of "60 million" and "20 million", and the answers of the subject have changed dramatically.

In this way, mooring and adjustment hulistic are given based on the information I heard in advance.It is called the "anchoring effect" that depends on the anchor.

Simulation Hulistic

"Simulation Hulistic" is a way to estimate the results by envisioning fictitious scenarios from experience and prejudice.

According to social psychologist Professor Susan Fisk (University of Princeton) and Professor Sherry Taylor (University of California), Simulation Hulistic will be used for future forecasts, causal inferences, and anti -virtual.It is estimated based on a fictional scenario as shown below.

[Future forecast]

I was not good at speaking in public, but I was asked for a wedding speech.→ "I have forgotten the dialogue in the arts session so much that I was nervous. This time, my head will be white and will fail again."

[Causal reasoning]

The mug on the desk was broken.→ "The documents accumulated on the next desk are falling to my desk. The mug has fallen on the floor due to the collapse of the documents, and broken."do.

[Anti -virtual]

When I went to the airport by car, I was caught in a traffic jam and was late for flight time.→ "If you are heading by train instead of a car, you can arrive at the airport at the time of time and in time for an airplane ..."

The above three may seem like a reasonable reasoning, but it is just a "fictional scenario."For example, just because you fail in the past does not always fail.In addition, I did not see the moment of cracking about the cause of the broken mug, so I still do not imagine it.Also, it is not unusual for trains to be delayed significantly due to traffic light failures and accidents.I can't say the right decision.

Above, we have introduced four types of Huristics.You may not be used to the word Hulistics itself, but you should be aware of the above -mentioned way of thinking.

How to avoid the disadvantages of Huristics

Hulistics have the advantages of quickly making decisions, but also triggering mistakes.How can I avoid the disadvantages of Hulistics?

According to the 1998 article, "Hidden Traps in decision -making," in the Harvard Business Review magazine, he is always aware of the existence of "bias", such as prejudice and prejudice, in order not to fall into the pitfalls of Hulistics.It seems important.Here are some ways to be aware of bias for each type of Hulistics.

Suspect a stereotype

To avoid the disadvantages arising from typical phyulistic, think about whether your thoughts are influenced by "stereotypes".Please ask yourself as follows.

Foreigners seem to be in trouble.Let's talk in English....... But if you think about it, it doesn't mean that it looks like a foreigner, and not all foreigners speak English.This is Japan and let's talk in Japanese.If you don't communicate, you can switch to English.

It takes time to collect information

To avoid disadvantages that can cause useful hulistic, don't rely only on information that is easy to get, but take a little time and collect information.It is important to check the specific numbers without judging with an intuitive impression.

I have no acquaintance last year.But that doesn't mean that the risk of influenza is low.Look at the "influenza epidemic level map" of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases to check how to expand the infection.

The shocking news of an airplane accident is being broadcast every day.The accident is terrible, but is it dangerous to get on an airplane?Confirm the "status of traffic accidents" on the government statistics portal site, "Statistics of Aviation Accident" on the Transportation Safety Commission's website, and compare the probability of an aircraft accident and aircraft accident.

Be aware of the anchoring effect

The disadvantages of mooring and adjustment hulistic are caused by the anchoring effect.Be aware of the anchoring effect and be aware that "your thoughts are influenced by other information presented in advance."

Is the high -end meat of 1,000 yen for a regular price 500 yen for a special discount?It's a great deal, why not buy it?… But if you don't know that the original price is 1,000 yen, do you want to buy this?Let's think carefully.

I want to write a novel, but how many days will it take?I wrote her debut work in 7 days, so I'm twice as 14 days.… No, the number “7 days” had nothing to do with me.The ability is different and the number of pages is different.First, try and know your pace.

Discard hopeful observation

To avoid the disadvantages arising from simulation hulistic, you need to remove "hopeful observation" and "anxiety caused by past failures."Let's consider a neutral perspective on the means necessary to achieve the goal, regardless of positive thinking or negative thinking.

I would be happy if I could pass the qualification exam.You can clearly imagine yourself who is happy to pass.I feel like I can pass!… No, this image has nothing to do with the actual pass.Let's calm down and make a study plan to ensure that you pass.

I was not good at speaking in public, but I was asked for a speech.How do you refuse ...But when you calm down, just because you have failed before doesn't mean you'll fail.Do you read a book on how to do a speech and practice it?

Refer to the examples of your own questions listed above, stop thinking, "Isn't this a hulistic?"

*** Our decision tends to be some kind of hulistics.Hulistics may have the advantage of quickly making decisions, but also causes serious mistakes.Please try the method introduced this time to prevent failure.

(Reference) Daniel Carneman, translated by Akiko Murai (2012), "How do you determine your will?(Upper / lower)], Hayakawa Shobo.Harvard Business Review Editorial Department (2019), "The Textbook for Decision, Harvard Business Review Review Best 10", Diamond.Yuji Hakoda, Hosho Tsuji, Hideaki Kawabata, Shigeru Hagiwara (2010), "Cognitive Psychology", Yui Kaku.Yotaro Takano (2013), "Broadcasting University Teaching Material Cognitive Psychology", Broadcasting University Education Promotion Association.Translated by Susan Fisk, Sherry Taylor, Sosuke Miyamoto (2013), "From Social Cognitive Study Brain to Culture", Kitaoji Shobo.Shinichi Ichikawa (1997), "Invitation to cognitive psychology of science inference of thinking", Chuo Public Society Shinsha.The Japanese Society of Cognitive Psychological Society (2013), "Cognitive Psychology Handbook", Yuikaku.Michelle Vadillery, translated by Nami Hijikata (2018), "Behavioral Economics Essential Version", Hayakawa Shobo.Masafumi Soma, Tonori Tsuji (2014), "Research Trends of Bias Correction in decision -making", Rikkyo University psychology research, VOL.56, PP.45-58.Takano Sugimoto and Yotaro Takano (2011), "Anchoring effect when the amount of knowledge about the target is small: comparison of meaningful process theory and numerical processing theory", cognitive psychology research, Volume 8, PP.145-151.GLOBIS Finding See | Really probability?-Simulation Hulistic GLOBIS Knowledge Record | Presentation 10 Tips are President Online | Why do you ask for potatoes in Mac? Gentosha Gold Onlineteeth?TVersky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman (1983), “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY IN PROBABILITY JUDGMENT.293-315.

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