A feeling of deceleration in the Chinese economy, in August production and sloppy global economic modification

[Beijing = Iori Kawate] The deceleration of the Chinese economy is increasing.In August, industrial production was 5 year -on -year.Only 3%increased.It reflects the global economic modulation facing the stagnation of international logistics and the shortage of semiconductors.As the new colon virus expands again from late July, the response method that repeats large -scale behavioral restrictions holds the head of consumption.The risk that the Chinese economy will spread to the world is increasing.

In August, industrial production announced by the Chinese Statistics Bureau on the 15th, in July 2020 (4 (4) (4.It was a low growth since 8%).The rating rate of the previous month due to seasonal fluctuation factors is 0.31%duller.

One of the backgrounds is the peak of the overseas economy.In the United States and Europe, the purchasing person in charge of the purchaser (PMI, overall, bulletin value) worsened.In addition to the effects of the delta -type infection expansion on consumption, the confusion of the supply network, such as the shortage of manpower in the port, is prolonged.

The export container price index in Zhejiang Province and Funayama Port has continued to rise since last year, when the new Corona was extended.It has jumped more than four times compared to the beginning of 20 years.

The port procedure is also delayed."The exports landed at the port of Los Angeles, USA have been stopped for two weeks."Tianjin's trade company owners are careful.There is no medation of railway transport to Mexico waiting for customers.

In China, the port test has become strict with the re -expansion of the new Corona, which is a burden of production and imports and exports."The shipper who carried it to Europe and other countries by rail and transfer from there has begun to appear," said Mr. Zhao, a logistics consultant.

The impact of global semiconductor deficiency is also serious.Automotive production in August fell nearly 20 % from the same month last year.The decrease has been decreasing for four consecutive months."The infection of new colonas has spread in Malaysia, which is a semiconductor supply base, and the production pressure is increasing," said the Chinese Automobile Industry Association.It is more likely that the sales volume in China in 2010 will be less than the forecast of about 27 million units, up 7%year -on -year.

In addition, the raw material is highly deprived of the company's physical strength.Due to the inflow of speculation funds, some product prices have soared, spreading to China's intermediate goods and materials.The wholesale price index in August is 9 years from the same month..He recorded a 5%rise and the level for the first time in 13 years.There is also a movement to squeeze the profits of small and medium -sized enterprises and see off investment in increased production.

China's production deceleration, which has a high global market share in LCD panels and battery members, reflects global economic modulation.PMI's new overseas orders will be less than 50, which is a good line for four consecutive months until August.It suggests an export stagnation three to six months later.

80 % of employees work small and medium -sized enterprises suffer from difficulty in funding and are hindered by employment and wages.New employment in urban areas in January to August is 9.38 million, nearly 5%below the same period of 19 years before Corona.

Employment and wages that do not shake spread to domestic demand.Social consumer retail (retail sales), which reflects consumption trends, is August, 2nd year last year.Only 5%increased.There are 4 restaurants that account for 10 % of the total.The depression was reduced by 5%.The increase rate of the production activity index in the service industry including accommodation and transportation is 4.It shrinked to 8%, lowering the level in front of Corona, which was around 7%.

In addition, China has adopted a "zero korona" policy that thoroughly contains the expansion of corona in the blockade of the area where the infected people appeared.Despite the expansion of infection this summer, the number of movements throughout the ministry and the closure of sightseeing spots continued, resulting in a burden of contact -type consumption.

Consumption cannot regain the momentum due to the reinforcement and cancellation of the alert posture."In the instant wind speed, the growth of domestic demand has become almost zero," said Marubeni China Takamoto Suzuki.

It is the government's reinforcements that make up for it.Real estate, which has been dissatisfied with the rising prices, has introduced mortgage regulations and restrictions on condominium transactions.Demands are beginning to cool, with the price of second -hand housing in 70 major cities in August, with the rise of cities that have fallen from the previous month.

The Chinese government will accelerate the issuance of local governments infrastructure bonds and support the economy in the latter half of 200 years in public works.However, if you can't get out of the landing on the back of the global economy, the impact may bounce back to the global economy.